2025 Bitcoin and cryptocurrency predictions

This year has been nothing short of monumental for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin began the year hovering around $40,000, only to surge past $100,000 in December. The industry shook off the lingering shadows of a prolonged crypto winter, celebrated the landmark approval of a Bitcoin ETF, and found itself increasingly entrenched in the political conversation. In many ways, 2024 marked a turning point, solidifying crypto’s role as a key player in both financial markets and public discourse.

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Looking ahead, 2025 promises to be another transformative year. With President-elect Donald Trump coming into office after a pro-crypto campaign, a new era of policy and innovation may be on the horizon. Adding to the excitement in the crypto community is the influential role of Trump ally Elon Musk.

Perhaps one of the most anticipated shifts is the upcoming departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, known for his critical stance on crypto. Trump has tapped Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as the next SEC chair — a move that could reshape the regulatory landscape and foster greater opportunities for the industry.

Many crypto experts view 2025 as a pivotal year, when political, regulatory, and technological forces can converge to unlock unprecedented potential for the digital asset industry. Here’s what to expect, according to interviews with industry experts and insiders.

Will Bitcoin pass $125,000? 

“Absolutely — easily,” said Noelle Acheson, a crypto analyst and author of the “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter. In an email to Quartz, Acheson avoided giving a specific price forecast, but said Bitcoin is “very likely to be much higher than $125,000 by the summer.” Her optimism reflects growing momentum in the crypto market, fueled by increasing institutional investor interest and regulatory shifts.

Will there be a U.S. Bitcoin reserve?

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During a Bitcoin conference in July, Trump made waves by pledging to establish a government Bitcoin reserve. That would elevate Bitcoin to the status of a national strategic asset, potentially transforming Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system.

Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, an SEC-regulated Registered Investment Advisor specializing in digital asset derivatives, said such a move could have far-reaching implications for the market. He envisions Trump not only announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve but also pushing Congress to pass legislation aimed at significantly increasing the country’s Bitcoin holdings.

“This would set off a race across many nations to acquire Bitcoin, like gold in the past.” Blume said. “With the near unlimited capacity for money printing that central banks have, the sky could be the limit.”

What’s next for crypto ETFs? Is a Dogecoin ETF coming?

While the approval of additional crypto ETFs seems likely, it may not happen anytime soon, Acheson said. She said that new SEC leadership might relax requirements, but that practical challenges remain.

Furthermore, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is unlikely to approve derivatives on assets without clarity on whether they are classified as commodities or securities — a process that could take time to resolve, Acheson said. Blume agreed, adding that cryptocurrencies with higher market caps, such as Solana, are the most likely candidates for ETF approval.

When asked about the possibility of a Dogecoin ETF, both Acheson and Blume expressed skepticism about such a security pegged to Musk’s favorite memecoin. Kathleen Breitman, co-founder and CEO of the Tezos Foundation, offered a more lighthearted perspective. “Anything could happen,” she said with a laugh. “DOGE has definitely become a cultural icon, so why not?”

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The path forward for crypto ETFs will likely hinge on regulatory clarity, market infrastructure, and investor appetite.

Less crypto regulation — but risks remain

Next year is poised to bring significant deregulation for the crypto industry, offering much-needed clarity for investors and blockchain developers alike. Acheson said Congress is likely to finally establish a comprehensive framework for digital assets, addressing critical aspects such as licensing, registration, and disclosure requirements.

“The first milestone will likely be a stablecoin bill,” Acheson said, highlighting its relative simplicity and existing bipartisan support. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a steady value by being pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar, making them a key focus for regulators concerned about financial stability.

A broader crypto bill will take more time due to its complexity. “But we’ll get there,” Acheson said.

Acheson cautioned that the inherent risks of crypto investment will remain. These include the potential for sharp price drops, fraud, and the risk of overly restrictive regulations. “At some point, even the most positive environment can turn negative — that’s just how market cycles work,” she warned.

Breitman sees 2025 as a year when more investors will enter the crypto space, drawn by increased confidence in regulation and market opportunities. But she advised caution for investors: “Taking a conservative approach is probably the best strategy.”